The Chicago Cubs walked off the New York Mets 2-1 in ten innings at Wrigley Field on April 19, 2026, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model's estimate placed at just 23 percent before the game even began for the home side. The Cubs managed to take the win despite being held scoreless through eight innings, with the decisive damage coming in the final two frames against the Mets bullpen.
The game turned on a single at-bat in the bottom of the ninth. With Craig Kimbrel's former teammate Devin Williams on the mound, Michael Conforto laced a double that swung win probability by plus 50.1 percent, the single most impactful play of the night by a wide margin. Ian Happ followed with a single worth plus 12.3 percent, and Chicago suddenly had life in what had been a dormant offensive evening. Before that sequence, Alex Bregman's groundout in the eighth had been the low point for the Cubs, costing the home team 12.9 percent in win probability against Luke Weaver. The Mets were unable to convert their lead into a finish, and Chicago carried momentum into extra innings, where Dansby Swanson's strikeout against Craig Kimbrel added 19.5 percent to the Cubs' chances before Nico Hoerner delivered the walk-off sacrifice fly worth another 16.4 percent to close it out.
On the pitching side, Luke Weaver led all pitchers with plus 29.7 percent WPA, holding Chicago in check deep into the game, while David Peterson contributed plus 19.7 percent and Tobias Myers added plus 18.2 percent for New York. Their efforts were ultimately undone by the late-inning collapse. Conforto was the standout position player at plus 50.1 percent WPA and plus 1.1 RE24, with Happ adding plus 15.9 percent WPA and Pete Crow-Armstrong contributing plus 13.0 percent WPA in support. The DiamondIQ model's estimate closed at 100 percent for Chicago, a reflection of how completely the Cubs controlled the outcome once extra innings arrived.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.