The Colorado Rockies defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 9-6 at Coors Field on April 19, 2026, in a game that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Colorado win climb from a pre-game 25% all the way to 100% by the final out. The Dodgers generated early offense in the third inning when Shohei Ohtani laced a double off Michael Lorenzen, a play that added 11.1% to Los Angeles's win probability, and the club extended its lead with a run in the fourth. Colorado, however, was not without its own missed opportunities early, as Willi Castro grounded into a double play in the bottom of the fourth off Roki Sasaki, a sequence that cost the Rockies 18.4 percentage points of win probability and briefly stalled their momentum.
The game turned decisively in Colorado's favor in the fifth and seventh innings. Kyle Karros launched a home run off Sasaki in the fifth, a swing worth 12.4% in win probability that drew the Rockies closer, and the seventh inning proved to be the finishing blow. Mickey Moniak connected for a home run off Blake Treinen, the single biggest win-probability swing of the game at plus 22.4%, followed shortly by an Edouard Julien double off Treinen that added another 10.6%. Colorado plated three runs in both the seventh and eighth innings to pull away decisively from a Dodgers team that managed two late runs in the ninth but could not overcome the deficit.
Among the standout performers, Moniak led all batters with a WPA of plus 22.4% and a RE24 of plus 2.3, while Troy Johnston contributed a WPA of plus 19.1% and Julien finished at plus 17.2% on the strength of his seventh-inning double. Out of the bullpen, Jimmy Herget led Colorado's relievers with a WPA of plus 8.1%, followed closely by Will Klein at plus 7.9%. Both clubs finished with 15 hits apiece and committed no errors, making the difference entirely one of timely hitting and a Colorado bullpen that held firm when the Dodgers attempted their ninth-inning rally.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.