The Chicago Cubs routed the New York Mets 12-4 at Wrigley Field on April 17, 2026, a result that tracked closely with the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 69 percent home win probability and ultimately reached 100 percent by the final out. The Cubs struck early and often, posting four runs in the bottom of the first and never relinquishing control, while the Mets finished with two errors against a Cubs team that played clean defensively.
The game's decisive sequence came in the bottom of the first and second innings at the expense of Kodai Senga. Moisés Ballesteros launched a home run off Senga in the first that added 5.9 percent to Chicago's win probability, and Nico Hoerner followed in the second with a home run of his own that swung the model's estimate by an additional 11.4 percent, effectively burying any realistic path to a Mets comeback. The Mets' best opportunities to respond were erased by self-inflicted damage, most notably Francisco Lindor grounding into a double play in the top of the third, a sequence that cost New York 7.2 percent in win probability, and Marcus Semien's strikeout double play in the fourth that shed another 5.0 percent. An Ian Happ fielding error in the bottom of the fourth added 5.7 percent to Chicago's advantage and continued to suppress any momentum the Mets might have built.
Hoerner finished as the game's most impactful offensive player with a WPA of plus 12.1 percent and an RE24 of plus 1.8, while Ballesteros posted a WPA of plus 7.0 percent and led all batters with an RE24 of plus 3.1. Happ contributed a WPA of plus 6.0 percent and an RE24 of plus 2.2 to round out Chicago's most productive performers at the plate. On the mound, Riley Martin led Cubs pitchers with a WPA of plus 2.9 percent, supported by Edward Cabrera at plus 1.9 percent. Both teams finished with 14 hits, but the Cubs converted theirs into 12 runs against a Mets defense that could not stay clean.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.