The Tampa Bay Rays rallied past the Chicago White Sox 5-3 at Rate Field on April 16, 2026, erasing what had been a 54 percent pre-game home win probability according to the DiamondIQ model and holding Chicago to a final win probability of zero. The game was largely a low-scoring affair through eight innings, with the White Sox drawing even at two in the bottom of the eighth when Everson Pereira launched a home run off Kevin Kelly, a swing that shifted win probability by 21.4 percent in Chicago's favor and briefly made Rate Field look like it might hold. The Rays had scratched across single runs in the fourth and seventh, with Richie Palacios delivering a key single off Sean Newcomb in the top of the seventh that added 15.9 percent win probability, keeping Tampa Bay within striking distance.
The ninth inning belonged entirely to the Rays. Junior Caminero turned the game on its head with a home run off Seranthony Domínguez, the single biggest swing of the night at plus 34.2 percent win probability, giving Tampa Bay a lead it would not relinquish. The inning continued to shift when Hunter Feduccia drew a walk off Lucas Sims, a plate appearance worth 32.0 percent in win probability as the Rays continued to press. Jake Fraley's strikeout against Sims was the lone significant momentum check, carrying a minus 18.2 percent impact, but Tampa Bay ultimately pushed three runs across in the frame to pull away at 5-3.
Among the standout performers by the DiamondIQ model's metrics, Feduccia finished with a 32.0 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.0, while Palacios accumulated 31.0 percent WPA and led all position players with a RE24 of plus 1.8. Caminero added 28.3 percent WPA on the strength of his decisive ninth-inning blast. On the pitching side, Steven Matz led the staff at plus 7.6 percent WPA, with Jordan Hicks and Newcomb each contributing positive figures as well, though Newcomb's mark came in a losing effort for Chicago.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.