The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Baltimore Orioles 8-5 on April 15, 2026, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, rallying with a three-run tenth inning to complete the comeback. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had Baltimore as a 54% favorite before first pitch, but the Orioles' win probability fell to 0% by the final out, reflecting how thoroughly Arizona seized control in the extra frame.
The decisive sequence came in the top of the tenth, where Adrian Del Castillo delivered the knockout blow with a home run off Tyler Wells that swung Arizona's win probability by +33.7%, the single largest play of the game. That drive was set up in part by Geraldo Perdomo's sacrifice bunt, also off Wells, which shifted the probability by +16.4% and illustrated how methodically the Diamondbacks constructed the inning. Del Castillo had already been a central figure much earlier, reaching on a fielding error in the top of the third that moved Arizona's win probability by +18.5%, helping the visitors build an early cushion against Kyle Bradish. Baltimore's best moment came in the bottom of the fifth, when Jeremiah Jackson's home run off Eduardo Rodriguez produced a +25.2% swing in the Orioles' favor, and Leody Taveras's single in the seventh off Kevin Ginkel added a +14.6% bump to keep Baltimore within reach.
Del Castillo finished as the game's most impactful offensive player by a wide margin, posting a combined WPA of +52.7% and a RE24 of +2.6, while Jackson's +35.5% WPA and +2.0 RE24 made him Baltimore's most productive bat despite the loss. On the mound, Ryan Helsley led Arizona's relievers with +13.5% WPA, followed by Taylor Clarke at +10.9% and Anthony Nunez at +10.6%, as the bullpen collectively shut the door after the late Baltimore threat. Arizona finished with 12 hits and committed no errors, while Baltimore's lone miscue in the third proved consequential in the final margin.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.