The Washington Nationals held on to defeat the Pittsburgh Pirates 5-4 at PNC Park on April 14, 2026, completing a comeback that began with a three-run first inning and surviving a late Pittsburgh charge. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Pittsburgh holding a 54% win probability at first pitch, but that number collapsed to zero by the final out as Washington's bullpen secured the road victory.
The decisive sequence came in the seventh inning, when Nick Yorke grounded into a double play off Cionel Pérez, a swing that shifted win probability by 20.8 points in Washington's favor and effectively neutralized a Pittsburgh threat. Yorke remained central to the game's critical moments, this time going the other way in the ninth, when his pop out off Gus Varland added 18.8 points to Washington's win probability. Konnor Griffin countered with a double off Varland that swung things back toward Pittsburgh by 17.0 points, and Oneil Cruz's strikeout to end the inning, costing Pittsburgh 14.9 points of win probability, closed the door. Clayton Beeter was the single most impactful pitcher of the night at plus 24.2% WPA, with Cionel Pérez adding 19.9% and Isaac Mattson contributing 11.0% as the trio held Pittsburgh scoreless after the fifth.
Among position players, CJ Abrams led all batters with a WPA of plus 16.2% and a RE24 of plus 2.2, the most impactful offensive contribution of the game. Konnor Griffin posted a WPA of plus 15.3%, while Luis García Jr. added plus 8.7% WPA and a RE24 of plus 0.8. Washington finished with nine hits and two errors to Pittsburgh's eight hits and clean fielding, but the Nationals bullpen's ability to strand Pittsburgh's late-game threats proved to be the margin of difference. The DiamondIQ model favors Washington's relief corps as the primary driver of the win.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.