The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the New York Mets 2-1 at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium on April 14, 2026, in a tightly contested game that the DiamondIQ model's estimate opened at a 54 percent home win probability before closing at 100 percent. The game was played close to the vest through seven innings, with both teams having traded single runs in the first before settling into a prolonged stalemate that lasted until the eighth inning decided matters.
The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the eighth, when Kyle Tucker delivered a single off Brooks Raley that swung win probability by plus-15.1 percent, the largest single-play shift of the game. A Miguel Rojas walk earlier in that same frame had already moved the needle by plus-5.8 percent, setting the table for Tucker's game-winning hit. On the other side of the ledger, the Mets' offense repeatedly failed in critical moments, with Luis Robert Jr. striking out against Blake Treinen in the top of the eighth for a minus-8.3 percent swing, Brett Baty punching out against Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the seventh at minus-7.5 percent, and Jorge Polanco fanning against Alex Vesia in the ninth at minus-7.1 percent. Those three strikeouts collectively drained New York of any realistic path back into the game.
Tucker finished as the game's top offensive performer by WPA at plus-12.4 percent with a plus-0.8 RE24, while Francisco Lindor led all batters in RE24 at plus-0.9 despite contributing only modestly to win probability. On the mound, Nolan McLean led all pitchers with a plus-36.9 percent WPA, followed closely by Yamamoto at plus-35.5 percent, underscoring how thoroughly Los Angeles controlled the pitching side of the ledger. Alex Vesia closed it out with a plus-15.2 percent contribution, and the Dodgers finished the night without committing an error against New York's four-hit, one-error output.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.