The Atlanta Braves defeated the Miami Marlins 6-5 on April 14, 2026, at Truist Park in a game that remained genuinely competitive through seven innings before an explosive eighth inning settled the outcome. The DiamondIQ model opened with Atlanta holding a 54 percent pre-game win probability as the home side, and that figure climbed steadily to 100 percent by the final out. Miami struck first and built a 4-1 lead through two innings, with the Marlins plating three runs in the top of the second, but Atlanta answered with two in the bottom half to keep pace. The game then went quiet through the middle frames before everything shifted decisively in the eighth.
The bottom of the eighth inning was the turning point that the DiamondIQ model's win-probability tracking identified as the game's defining sequence. Dominic Smith delivered the decisive blow, a double off Pete Fairbanks that swung Atlanta's win probability by plus-48.6 percent, the single largest play of the contest. That hit was bookended by an Ozzie Albies hit by pitch, also off Fairbanks, that added another plus-11.2 percent, and a Drake Baldwin single contributing plus-8.9 percent. Atlanta scored three runs in that inning to take a lead they would not relinquish. Miami had momentarily kept the door open in the top of the eighth when Otto Lopez singled off Robert Suarez for a plus-14.2 percent swing, but the Braves' bullpen ultimately closed things out.
Dominic Smith finished as the game's top performer by a wide margin, posting a plus-58.3 percent WPA and plus-3.5 RE24 on the strength of that pivotal double. Otto Lopez led Miami's contributors with a plus-13.2 percent WPA and plus-0.9 RE24, while Drake Baldwin added plus-11.6 percent WPA and plus-0.7 RE24 in support of Smith's eighth-inning surge. On the pitching side, Michael Petersen led all pitchers with a plus-17.5 percent WPA, followed by Raisel Iglesias at plus-15.2 percent, with Max Meyer contributing plus-9.1 percent after holding Atlanta in check for stretches that included a critical Michael Harris II strikeout in the second inning that cost the Braves minus-9.7 percent win probability at the time.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.