The Miami Marlins handed the Atlanta Braves a 10-4 defeat at Truist Park on April 13, 2026, in a game that turned decisively in the middle innings. Atlanta entered with a 54% pre-game win probability according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate, but that advantage evaporated by the time the final out was recorded, with the model's estimate settling at 0% for the home side. The fourth inning proved pivotal for both clubs, as Miami opened the scoring with an Otto Lopez single off Grant Holmes that shifted win probability 11.8 points in the Marlins' favor, only for Atlanta to answer in the bottom half with a Mike Yastrzemski single off Eury Pérez (+16.0%) and an Austin Riley single (+13.4%) that briefly swung momentum back toward the Braves.
Miami ultimately seized control in the fifth inning when Agustín Ramírez launched a home run off Aaron Bummer, the single largest probability swing of the game at +29.2 points, pushing the Marlins into a commanding position from which Atlanta never recovered. Connor Norby added to the damage in the sixth with a home run off Rolddy Muñoz worth another +9.6 points of win probability. When the dust settled, Miami had put up 16 hits without committing an error, while holding Atlanta to 9 hits across the same nine innings.
Ramírez was the clear standout performer of the night, finishing with a cumulative WPA of +43.3% and a RE24 of +4.7, the most impactful individual line in the game by a significant margin. Norby contributed +15.7% WPA and a RE24 of +1.1, while Yastrzemski, despite playing for the losing side, posted +14.9% WPA and a RE24 of +1.3 on the strength of his fourth-inning single. On the mound, Andrew Nardi led Miami's relievers with +7.7% WPA, followed by John King at +4.9%, as the Marlins' bullpen held Atlanta scoreless from the sixth inning onward to close out the victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.