The Cleveland Guardians handed the St. Louis Cardinals a 9-3 defeat at Busch Stadium on April 13, 2026, erasing a game the DiamondIQ model had opened as a 54 percent home-side proposition. Cleveland scored in the first inning, then broke the game open across three separate multi-run frames — the fourth, sixth, and eighth — holding St. Louis to a single error-marred performance that finished with the model's estimated win probability for the Cardinals at zero percent.
The decisive turning point came in the top of the fourth, when Cleveland plated three runs against Matthew Liberatore in a sequence the DiamondIQ model identified as the game's most consequential stretch. Rhys Hoskins drew a walk that shifted win probability 5.9 percent toward Cleveland, David Fry followed with a single worth 5.2 percent, Daniel Schneemann added another single at 6.5 percent, and Austin Hedges capped the inning with a sacrifice fly that moved the needle an additional 10.0 percent. Brayan Rocchio then delivered the single biggest swing of the night in the sixth, launching a home run off Justin Bruihl that added 11.8 percent to Cleveland's win probability and effectively closed the competitive window.
Rocchio finished as the game's top offensive performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a combined WPA of plus 14.0 percent and an RE24 of plus 2.9. Masyn Winn contributed a plus 9.7 percent WPA and plus 2.3 RE24 to represent the Cardinals' best individual effort, though it proved insufficient. On the mound, Gavin Williams was the game's most impactful pitcher, accumulating plus 15.4 percent WPA for Cleveland, with Tim Herrin and Erik Sabrowski providing additional bullpen support at plus 4.1 and plus 3.6 percent respectively.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.