Baltimore came back to defeat Arizona 9-7 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on April 13, 2026, in a game that swung decisively in the Orioles' favor across the middle and late innings. The DiamondIQ model opened with Baltimore holding a 54 percent home win probability, and while Arizona built early momentum, that estimate climbed to 100 percent by the final out as the Orioles pulled away with a six-run sixth inning and added insurance in the seventh and eighth.
The critical turning point arrived in the bottom of the sixth, when Jeremiah Jackson connected on a home run off Taylor Rashi that shifted win probability by 26.0 percent in Baltimore's favor, helping to fuel a five-run inning that flipped the game's complexion entirely. Arizona had briefly seized control in the top of the fourth when Nolan Arenado launched a home run off Dean Kremer, a swing worth plus-18.5 percent in win probability that gave the Diamondbacks their best foothold of the afternoon. But the Orioles answered emphatically, and Pete Alonso delivered the decisive blow in the bottom of the seventh, a home run off Jonathan Loáisiga that added another 26.4 percent to Baltimore's win probability and effectively closed the door. Gunnar Henderson's triple off Ryne Nelson in the third, worth plus-15.3 percent, was an early indicator of how dangerous the Orioles' lineup would prove.
Jeremiah Jackson was the game's top performer by a significant margin, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-38.6 percent and an RE24 of plus-3.7 across his two home runs, the second coming off Andrew Hoffmann in the eighth for an additional 12.0 percent swing. Alonso contributed plus-24.4 percent WPA and plus-2.0 RE24, while Arenado led Arizona's offensive effort with plus-23.5 percent WPA and plus-3.3 RE24 despite being on the losing side. Among pitchers, Ryne Nelson paced all starters with plus-17.4 percent WPA, with Rico Garcia adding plus-10.8 percent in relief for Baltimore's bullpen group.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.