The Seattle Mariners handled the Houston Astros 6-2 at T-Mobile Park on April 13, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Seattle built its margin early and never ceded control, with Houston managing just two runs on seven hits against a Mariners pitching staff that kept the visitors largely in check throughout.
The game's most consequential swing came in the bottom of the first, when Luke Raley's strikeout against Mike Burrows shifted win probability 5.7 percent in Seattle's favor before Houston could even threaten, a sign of the tone Burrows struggled to set. The Mariners then struck for three runs in the first inning and added two more in the third, the biggest blow being Josh Naylor's home run off Burrows in the bottom of the third, a play worth plus 9.8 percent in win probability that essentially stretched the lead to a commanding margin. Houston briefly answered in the fifth when Yainer Diaz's single off George Kirby moved the needle 7.3 percent toward the Astros, but Luke Raley countered with a single of his own later that half-inning to push it back, and the Mariners' one-run answer in the fifth made any Houston comeback arithmetic increasingly difficult.
Individually, Naylor was Seattle's most impactful bat, finishing with a combined plus 12.5 percent in WPA and plus 3.0 RE24, while Raley was nearly as damaging at plus 11.2 percent WPA across multiple key moments. Brendan Donovan contributed a modest plus 5.4 percent WPA in support. George Kirby was the decisive factor on the mound, accumulating plus 15.9 percent WPA to lead all pitchers, with Matt Brash and J.P. France adding smaller contributions in relief. Houston's seven hits were spread too thin against a Mariners effort that allowed no margin for a rally to take shape.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.