The Arizona Diamondbacks edged the Philadelphia Phillies 4-3 at Citizens Bank Park on April 12, 2026, completing the comeback after the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Philadelphia win stood at 54% before first pitch and fell to 0% by the final out. Arizona scored once in the second, again in the sixth, and then delivered the decisive two runs in the eighth, while Philadelphia's three-run sixth kept the game competitive before the Diamondbacks ultimately pulled away.
The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the eighth, when Adolis García grounded into a double play off Ryan Thompson, a moment that swung win probability by 33.6 points in Arizona's favor and effectively extinguished Philadelphia's best remaining threat. Prior to that, Trea Turner had given Philadelphia life with a home run off Zac Gallen in the sixth, a swing worth 19.8 points of win probability that briefly made Citizens Bank Park feel like a Phillies game again. Arizona answered in the top of the eighth with consecutive run-producing singles from Adrian Del Castillo off Jonathan Bowlan and Jose Fernandez off José Alvarado, worth 19.4 and 18.4 WPA points respectively, restoring the lead the Diamondbacks would not relinquish.
Justin Crawford led all players with a cumulative WPA of plus-36.0, capped by a strikeout to end the ninth that was worth 31.6 points of win probability to Arizona, sealing the win for Paul Sewald. Jose Fernandez finished at plus-20.9 WPA with an RE24 of plus-0.9, while Del Castillo posted plus-19.4 WPA and plus-1.0 RE24. On the mound, Ryan Thompson paced Arizona's pitching staff at plus-33.6 WPA, with Jonathan Loáisiga adding plus-17.0 and Philadelphia's Andrew Painter contributing plus-16.2 despite pitching for the losing side.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.