The Athletics blanked the New York Mets 1-0 at Citi Field on April 12, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate shifting from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability to zero by the final out. The lone run came in the top of the third inning, when Nick Kurtz drove a solo home run off Freddy Peralta, a swing that moved Oakland's win probability up 10.7 percent and proved to be all the offense either side would generate on the night. The Athletics finished with four hits and no errors, matching the Mets hit-for-hit in a game that was decided almost entirely on the mound.
The most consequential sequence unfolded in the final two innings. Francisco Lindor's groundout in the bottom of the eighth off Elvis Alvarado represented a 16.5 percent swing against New York's chances, and the Mets never recovered the momentum. In the ninth, Joel Kuhnel retired the heart of the order, with Bo Bichette's groundout carrying a 31.6 percent win-probability swing — the single biggest play of the game — and Jorge Polanco's subsequent groundout adding another 8.5 percent shift to close out the shutout. Jeff McNeil had briefly generated some hope with a double off Peralta in the top of the fourth that registered plus 8.1 percent for New York's side, but the Mets could not convert any of their limited opportunities.
Among individual performers, Aaron Civale led all pitchers with a 25.3 percent WPA contribution, while Sean Manaea added 17.6 percent and Alvarado contributed 16.5 percent in relief. On the offensive side, Bichette posted the game's top batting WPA at plus 24.3 percent despite his final at-bat being a costly out in the ninth, as his numbers reflected his broader night at the plate. Kurtz finished with plus 10.4 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 0.9, giving Oakland's lineup its only true production of the evening.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.