The St. Louis Cardinals held off the Boston Red Sox 3-2 at Busch Stadium on April 10, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate entering the game giving the Cardinals a 54 percent chance of winning at home and finishing at 100 percent by the final out. St. Louis scored the decisive runs in the fifth inning, when Thomas Saggese delivered a single off Zack Kelly that shifted win probability by 9.8 percent in the Cardinals' favor, and José Fermín followed with a sacrifice fly worth an additional 8.7 percent, pushing St. Louis to a 3-2 lead that would hold through the final frame. Boston had scored twice in the fourth to take an early advantage, but the Cardinals' two-run fifth proved to be the difference.
The eighth inning represented Boston's last credible threat, and it was ultimately where the game was sealed. Ceddanne Rafaela's double off JoJo Romero moved the win-probability needle 11.8 percent toward the Red Sox, briefly tightening the contest, but Masataka Yoshida's strikeout against Romero swung the outcome 12.3 percent back toward St. Louis, and Willson Contreras followed with a flyout that cost Boston another 10.8 percent. The Cardinals' bullpen trio of Riley O'Brien, JoJo Romero, and Greg Weissert combined for the three highest pitching WPA figures in the game, at 15.2, 10.8, and 10.7 percent respectively, underscoring how thoroughly the St. Louis relief corps controlled the game's final stages.
Among position players, Saggese led all batters with a WPA of plus 8.1 percent and an RE24 of plus 0.6, while Fermín posted plus 6.8 percent WPA and plus 0.6 RE24, making the two Cardinals the central offensive figures in the win. Rafaela was Boston's most impactful bat at plus 6.7 percent WPA, though his eighth-inning double ultimately went to waste. St. Louis finished with eight hits against five for Boston, and despite committing one error compared to none for the Red Sox, the Cardinals converted their fifth-inning opportunities efficiently enough to close out a tight, low-scoring victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.