The Pittsburgh Pirates handed the Chicago Cubs a 2-0 shutout loss at Wrigley Field on April 10, 2026, scoring all their runs on a single swing in the seventh inning to erase what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 54 percent pre-game home win probability for Chicago. Bryan Reynolds delivered the decisive blow, a home run off Caleb Thielbar that shifted win probability by 23.3 percentage points in Pittsburgh's favor and accounted for both runs on the board. That moment represented the largest single win-probability swing of the game and effectively ended Chicago's chances of rallying, as the Cubs managed just six hits across nine innings without ever threatening the lead.
The Cubs' offensive futility was quantified across several key moments where potential threats dissolved. Matt Shaw's flyout in the bottom of the eighth off Gregory Soto represented a 12.3-point swing against Chicago, and his strikeout against Mason Montgomery in the sixth had already cost the Cubs 10.1 percentage points of win probability. Moisés Ballesteros lined out against Carmen Mlodzinski in the fourth for an 8.4-point negative swing, and Michael Busch's strikeout to end the ninth off Dennis Santana closed the door with a 14.4-point shift toward Pittsburgh.
Reynolds finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-20.8 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.2, while Carson Kelly contributed plus-17.8 percent WPA and a team-leading RE24 of plus-1.4. On the pitching side, Shota Imanaga led all players in the game with plus-27.3 percent WPA, followed by Mlodzinski at plus-21.4 percent and Soto at plus-13.3 percent, as the Pirates' collective pitching staff held Chicago to zero runs on six hits and allowed the DiamondIQ model's estimate to fall from 54 percent in Chicago's favor before first pitch to zero by the final out.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.