The Atlanta Braves defeated the Cleveland Guardians 11-5 at Truist Park on April 10, 2026, in a game that remained competitive through five innings before Atlanta pulled away decisively. The DiamondIQ model entered the night with a modest 54% home win probability, but that figure climbed steadily and ultimately reached 100% as the Braves dismantled Cleveland's pitching staff with a six-run sixth inning that effectively ended the contest.
The turning point came in the bottom of the sixth, where two swings off Guardians reliever Slade Cecconi reshuffled the probability landscape entirely. Matt Olson connected for a home run that shifted Atlanta's win probability by plus 20.3 percentage points, the single most impactful play of the game by the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Ronald Acuña Jr. followed with a home run of his own off Cecconi, adding another 14.8 points to Atlanta's probability. Acuña had also been the catalyst in the third inning, when his RBI single off Cecconi registered a plus 14.5 percentage point swing, giving the Braves their first run of the game. Cleveland had generated its own momentum earlier, with Kyle Manzardo's solo home run off Bryce Elder in the fourth adding 11.4 points for the Guardians, and Steven Kwan's single in the fifth contributing 12.9 points, but those gains proved insufficient to offset Atlanta's eruption.
Acuña led all players by WPA, finishing at plus 28.7% with a RE24 of plus 1.7, while Olson posted plus 16.3% WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.4. On the Cleveland side, Kwan was the lone standout, finishing at plus 14.4% WPA with a RE24 of plus 1.2. Atlanta's bullpen trio of Tyler Kinley, Aaron Bummer, and Dylan Lee each contributed positively on the mound, adding 6.0, 5.5, and 1.4 percentage points respectively to protect the lead through the final frames.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.