The Arizona Diamondbacks silenced Citi Field on April 9, 2026, routing the New York Mets 7-1 behind a seven-run outburst over the final three innings. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had the Mets entering the game as 54% favorites at home, but that probability collapsed entirely by the final out, finishing at 0%. For six innings the game remained tight and scoreless, but a four-run Arizona seventh inning broke the contest open and a three-run eighth sealed it.
The pivotal sequence came in the top of the seventh against Luke Weaver, when Arizona strung together three consecutive damaging blows. Gabriel Moreno's double was the single most impactful play of the game, swinging win probability 20.3 points in Arizona's favor. Alek Thomas followed with a fielder's choice that added another 16.3 points, and Jorge Barrosa extended the damage with a triple worth 12.0 points of win probability. Those three plays off Weaver effectively transferred the game's outcome in a matter of at-bats. Earlier, Geraldo Perdomo's grounded-into-double-play in the fourth had been the Mets' best defensive moment, costing Arizona 9.1 points of win probability.
On the pitching side, Nolan McLean led all players with a WPA of plus 27.5, and Eduardo Rodriguez contributed plus 18.4, with Taylor Clarke adding 6.3 more in relief. Moreno led position players with a WPA of plus 20.4 and an RE24 of plus 2.3, while Thomas finished at plus 10.6 WPA. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting the Arizona bullpen and the concentrated seventh-inning damage as the defining factors in what became a comfortable road victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.