The Miami Marlins handed the Cincinnati Reds a 7-4 defeat on April 8, 2026, at loanDepot park, building an early lead and holding off a Cincinnati push to close out the win. The DiamondIQ model opened with Miami favored at 54% pre-game home win probability, and by the final out that figure had reached 100%, reflecting how thoroughly the Marlins controlled the late innings.
The game's decisive stretch came in the first three innings, with Miami jumping out to a 6-2 advantage before Cincinnati had found its footing. The biggest single swing came in the bottom of the third, when Griffin Conine connected on a home run off Brady Singer, a play worth plus-14.4% in win probability that pushed the Marlins' edge to a commanding level. Earlier, Xavier Edwards had contributed a single off Singer in the bottom of the second that added plus-7.0% win probability, helping Miami plate two runs in that frame as well. Cincinnati mounted its most credible threat in the fifth, when Sal Stewart hit a home run off Eury Pérez that registered a plus-11.9% win-probability swing and made the score 6-4. The Reds, however, could not sustain the rally. In the top of the seventh, Matt McLain grounded into a double play off Andrew Nardi, a minus-11.8% swing that effectively extinguished Cincinnati's final meaningful opportunity, and Connor Norby followed with a home run off Connor Phillips in the bottom half to restore Miami's three-run cushion.
Conine finished as the game's top offensive contributor with a plus-15.1% WPA and plus-1.9 RE24, while Sal Stewart led all batters with a plus-2.8 RE24 despite Cincinnati's loss. On the pitching side, Andrew Nardi paced Miami's relievers at plus-7.2% WPA, with Ryan Gusto adding plus-6.4% and Sam Moll contributing plus-5.8% as the Marlins' bullpen secured the final six outs without incident. The Reds finished with two errors against one for Miami, a contrast that reflected Cincinnati's uneven performance throughout the afternoon.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.