The Arizona Diamondbacks handed the New York Mets a 7-2 defeat at Citi Field on April 8, 2026, a game that was effectively decided in the early innings. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 54 percent pre-game home win probability for New York, but that figure collapsed to zero by the final out, reflecting how decisively Arizona seized control. The Diamondbacks plated a run in the first and then broke the game open with a four-run second inning, building a lead the Mets never seriously threatened.
The swing in the second inning represented the clearest turning point by win-probability impact. Corbin Carroll's double off David Peterson contributed a 5.7 percent win-probability swing in Arizona's favor, and Gabriel Moreno followed with a strikeout that, within the context of the frame, reflected a 10.2 percent positive shift for the Diamondbacks as New York failed to answer. On the other side, Marcus Semien's groundout in the bottom of the second was the single most damaging at-bat of the night, costing the Mets 12.2 percent in win probability and extinguishing any early hope of a rally against Ryne Nelson. Brett Baty's sixth-inning single gave the Mets a brief 5.5 percent positive jolt, accounting for one of their two runs in that stretch, but it came far too late to alter the outcome.
Nelson was the dominant figure on the night, finishing as the top performer by WPA among all players with a 23.8 percent contribution, as he consistently suppressed the Mets lineup and kept Arizona's advantage intact. Among position players, Moreno led with 8.7 percent WPA, Carroll added 7.5 percent with a 2.1 RE24, and Baty was the lone Mets bright spot at 8.1 percent WPA and a 2.2 RE24. Arizona finished with 11 hits against New York's 7, and despite committing three errors, the Diamondbacks never allowed the Mets to capitalize on any of them. The model's estimate of a zero percent final win probability for the home team underscored just how complete Arizona's performance was from start to finish.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.