Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds rallied past the Miami Marlins 6-3 in ten innings on April 7, 2026, at loanDepot park, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 54 percent pre-game home win probability for Miami and reducing it to zero by the final out. The game was scoreless through the first three innings and remained tight until Miami scratched across two runs in the fourth. Neither team scored again through the eighth, setting the stage for a dramatic late sequence that swung the outcome decisively in Cincinnati's favor.

The pivot point arrived in the top of the ninth, where Spencer Steer's strikeout against Anthony Bender delivered a +29.1 percent win-probability swing for the Reds, reflecting how badly a Cincinnati threat had needed to survive that at-bat under leverage. The Reds then knotted the game with two runs in the ninth to force extras. The tenth inning was where Cincinnati broke it open against Calvin Faucher: Tyler Stephenson drew a walk that added +32.0 percent in win probability, the single most impactful play of the game, followed by Matt McLain's double at +17.4 percent and Nathaniel Lowe's single at +16.4 percent, producing a four-run frame. Miami answered with one run in the bottom half, but it fell well short.

Stephenson led all position players with a +22.6 percent WPA and a +0.6 RE24, while McLain posted the highest run-environment contribution among batters at +1.3 RE24 alongside a +18.3 percent WPA. Steer contributed +21.4 percent WPA despite his modest +0.2 RE24, underscoring how situation-dependent his ninth-inning moment was. On the pitching side, Sandy Alcantara was the standout, posting a game-high +34.0 percent WPA for Miami, though his effort was ultimately undone by the Reds' late-inning surge. Cincinnati finished with five hits and no errors, while Miami committed one error across seven hits in the loss.