The Chicago Cubs handed the Tampa Bay Rays a 9-2 defeat at Tropicana Field on April 7, 2026, a result that was never particularly in doubt after the early innings. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with a 54 percent home win probability for Tampa Bay, but that figure eroded steadily as Chicago built its advantage, ultimately reaching zero by the final out. The Cubs piled up 16 hits against a Rays staff that could not contain a lineup that produced runs in five of nine innings, while Tampa Bay finished with six hits and an error against a Cubs pitching group that was dominant from the start.
The game turned decisively in the second and third innings, where Chicago did its most consequential damage against starter Mason Englert. A Matt Shaw double in the top of the second registered a win-probability swing of plus 5.3 percent, igniting a two-run frame that put the Cubs ahead early. Tampa Bay had a chance to respond in the bottom of the second, but Cedric Mullins flew out in a spot that the DiamondIQ model valued at negative 6.8 percent for the Rays, the single largest win-probability swing of the game. The Cubs then extended their lead in the third on a Moisés Ballesteros sacrifice fly off Englert, a play worth plus 6.6 percent in win probability, followed closely by an Alex Bregman double that added another 5.0 percent. Nick Fortes grounded into a double play in the bottom of the fifth, a negative 5.6 percent swing that further extinguished any Rays momentum.
Javier Assad was the clear standout of the evening, posting a DiamondIQ model win-probability contribution of plus 25.7 percent, by far the highest of any player in the game, as he methodically suppressed a Tampa Bay lineup that managed only two runs. Among position players, Ballesteros led with plus 6.6 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 2.7, reflecting his direct run-producing impact in high-leverage situations. Shaw contributed plus 6.4 percent WPA and Bregman plus 6.1 percent, with the two doubles in the third inning combining to shift the game's probability landscape well beyond Tampa Bay's ability to recover.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.