The Cincinnati Reds shut out the Miami Marlins 2-0 at loanDepot park on April 6, 2026, handing the home side a loss after the DiamondIQ model's estimate had opened with Miami holding a 54% pre-game win probability. The Reds scored once in the fourth inning and once in the eighth, while the Marlins managed just three hits and were held scoreless throughout, finishing with an error on a night their offense never generated meaningful traction.
The game's decisive moments were concentrated in two half-innings. In the top of the fourth, Sal Stewart's single off Janson Junk shifted win probability 9.5 points in Cincinnati's favor, providing the foundation for the game's first run. The pivotal blow came in the top of the eighth, when Tyler Stephenson connected for a home run off Junk, swinging win probability another 14.9 points toward the Reds and effectively sealing the outcome. Miami's most threatening sequence came in the seventh, when Otto Lopez singled off Brandon Williamson to move the needle 6.7 points toward the Marlins, but Williamson stranded any threat. In the bottom of the ninth, Heriberto Hernandez's groundout off Emilio Pagan registered a 14.4-point swing for Cincinnati simply by closing the door, while Agustin Ramirez's strikeout against Tony Santillan in the eighth had been the Marlins' sharpest reversal at minus 7.4 points.
Brandon Williamson was the story on the mound, finishing with a plus-37.9% WPA contribution, by far the largest single-player figure in the game. Tony Santillan added plus-13.3% in relief. Among position players, Stephenson led all batters at plus-7.5% WPA, followed by Stewart at plus-5.7% and Elly De La Cruz at plus-4.6%. The DiamondIQ model closed with Miami's win probability at 0%, a complete inversion of where the evening began.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.