Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

The Colorado Rockies defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 4-1 at Coors Field on April 5, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54% pre-game home win probability all the way to 100% by the final out. Colorado struck decisively in the bottom of the first, building a 3-0 lead that put the Phillies in an early hole, and the game never truly tightened after that. Philadelphia managed its only run in the top of the second but could not sustain any offensive momentum against Tomoyuki Sugano, who finished as the game's most dominant performer with a model-leading +24.7% WPA on the mound.

The decisive moment came in the bottom of the fifth when Mickey Moniak connected on a home run off Taijuan Walker, a swing that produced the single largest win-probability shift of the game at +9.1%. That blow pushed Colorado's advantage to 4-1 and effectively ended Philadelphia's realistic path back into the contest. The Phillies had chances to apply pressure in the fifth inning, but Kyle Schwarber's flyout off Sugano registered as the game's second-biggest negative swing at -7.3%, and Justin Crawford's groundout in the second had similarly stifled a Philadelphia threat at -6.5%. Trea Turner's double in the fifth, worth +4.6% for the Phillies, stood as one of the few bright spots in what was otherwise a frustrating afternoon for Philadelphia's offense.

Moniak led all position players with a +9.5% WPA and a +1.4 RE24, while Sugano's performance anchored the Colorado staff. Jaden Hill and Brennan Bernardino added +5.0% and +4.5% WPA respectively out of the bullpen to preserve the outcome. Taijuan Walker absorbed the loss, unable to keep Colorado off the board in the first and fifth innings. The Rockies held the Phillies to six hits and benefited from a Philadelphia error, while committing one of their own, in a game that was largely settled before the middle frames.