Miami Marlins at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins stunned the New York Yankees 7-6 at Yankee Stadium on April 5, 2026, erasing what had been a 54 percent pre-game home win probability according to the DiamondIQ model and dropping it to zero by the final out. New York jumped ahead early, plating three runs in the first inning and adding one more in the third, but Miami chipped away with single runs in the first, fourth, and sixth frames to keep the game within reach. The decisive sequence came in the top of the eighth, when Graham Pauley delivered a double off Jake Bird that shifted win probability by 25.7 percent, and Xavier Edwards followed with a single off Ryan Yarbrough that added another 16.2 percent swing, as the Marlins pushed across four runs to take a 7-4 lead and effectively seize control of the contest.

New York mounted a two-run rally in the bottom of the ninth to close to 7-6, but Miami closer Anthony Bender recorded a strikeout of J.C. Escarra to end the threat, a play that registered as the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 27.0 percent from the Yankees' vantage point. The sixth inning had offered a glimpse of what might have been for the Marlins, as Connor Norby's fielder's choice out against Max Fried cost Miami 21.0 percent in win probability, though Heriberto Hernandez partially recovered the damage when a fielding error off Fried swung the needle back 18.7 percent in Miami's favor.

Among the individual performers, Escarra led all batters with a plus 27.0 percent WPA despite a negative RE24 of minus 0.2, while Pauley's eighth-inning double anchored a plus 25.7 percent WPA and a run-environment contribution of plus 1.4. Hernandez also finished as a net positive at plus 19.5 percent WPA and plus 1.0 RE24. On the pitching side, Max Fried led New York starters with plus 14.6 percent WPA, while Miami's Chris Paddack contributed plus 7.8 percent and Calvin Faucher added plus 5.2 percent in support of the road victory.