The Philadelphia Phillies held on for a 2-1 road victory over the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on April 4, 2026, completing the game with a final win probability of zero percent for Colorado after entering the night as 54% favorites according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Philadelphia scored the game's first run in the opening inning and added its second in the fifth, while Colorado answered with a solo run in the third but could not generate further damage against a Phillies pitching staff that controlled the contest through nine innings.
The game's most consequential single moment came in the bottom of the ninth, when Willi Castro struck out against Jhoan Duran to end Colorado's final threat, a play that shifted win probability by 31.6 percentage points in Philadelphia's favor and represented the largest swing of the night. Earlier in the eighth, Hunter Goodman's flyout off Brad Keller had briefly cut into Colorado's deficit in terms of leverage, carrying a 19.9-point negative swing, but Brett Sullivan's single in the same half-inning had already moved the needle 8.6 points toward Philadelphia. In the fifth, Trea Turner's double off Chase Dollander generated a 13.3-point positive swing that proved instrumental in the Phillies' second run.
Among position players, Castro led by WPA at plus-17.5 percent despite a negative RE24 of minus-0.8, reflecting the high-leverage context of his at-bat rather than run-creation value. Turner added plus-9.8 percent WPA and led qualifying batters with a RE24 of plus-1.3, while Sullivan contributed plus-11.5 percent WPA and plus-0.7 RE24. On the mound, Jesús Luzardo headlined the pitching staff with a plus-30.1 percent WPA, followed by Brad Keller at plus-23.3 percent and Dollander at plus-9.5 percent, a collective performance that was more than sufficient to protect a one-run lead through the final frames.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.