San Diego Padres at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres edged the Boston Red Sox 3-2 at Fenway Park on April 4, 2026, handing Boston a tough home loss despite the DiamondIQ model entering the game with a 54 percent win probability in favor of the Red Sox. The Padres scored single runs in the second, third, and ninth innings while the Red Sox managed runs in the second and eighth, leaving Boston unable to complete a comeback on their home field.

The decisive moment came in the top of the ninth inning when Ramón Laureano singled off Aroldis Chapman, a hit that swung win probability by 36.5 percent in San Diego's favor and represented the single largest play of the game. That swing effectively sealed it, and when Marcelo Mayer struck out against Mason Miller in the bottom of the ninth to end the game, it registered a 31.6 percent swing back toward the Padres from Boston's perspective, closing out the DiamondIQ model's estimate from 54 percent pre-game to zero. Earlier in the contest, Freddy Fermin's double off Connelly Early in the third had shifted momentum by 10.0 percent, while Roman Anthony's single off Adrian Morejon in the eighth gave Boston a brief pulse at plus 10.4 percent. A Willson Contreras groundout into a double play in the fourth, surrendering 9.4 percent win probability, proved a critical missed opportunity for the Red Sox.

Laureano finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 29.3 percent with a RE24 of plus 0.7, while Mayer, despite his series-ending strikeout, posted a plus 25.2 percent WPA driven by earlier contributions. On the pitching side, Randy Vásquez led all pitchers with a plus 25.5 percent WPA, supported by Jeremiah Estrada at plus 9.7 percent and Ryan Watson at plus 8.2 percent, a trio that collectively kept Boston's eight-hit lineup from breaking through when it mattered most.