St. Louis Cardinals at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 6 | 6 | 1 |
| DET | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - | 11 | 12 | 0 |
The Story
The Detroit Tigers defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 11-6 at Comerica Park on April 4, 2026, in a game that was closer than the final score suggested before Detroit pulled away decisively. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 54% home win probability, a near coin-flip, but closed at 100% in Detroit's favor as the Tigers gradually dismantled the Cardinals' chances across nine innings.
The pivotal moment came in the top of the fifth inning, when Cardinals outfielder Jordan Walker connected on a home run off Drew Anderson, a swing that added 24.1% in win probability and briefly made the Cardinals competitive in what became a five-run St. Louis frame. That inning temporarily tightened the contest, but Detroit answered in the bottom half when Zach McKinstry singled off Matt Svanson for a gain of 8.4% in win probability, helping stabilize the Tigers' position. McKinstry had already done damage in the fourth inning, hitting a home run off Dustin May worth 8.2% in win probability. Detroit's scoring was further anchored by a three-run first inning and a three-run fourth that gave the Tigers comfortable early cushions before the Cardinals' fifth-inning surge. On the negative side, JJ Wetherholt's strikeout in the top of the second cost St. Louis 9.5% in win probability, and Yohel Pozo's grounded into double play in the eighth surrendered another 8.9%.
Jordan Walker was the Cardinals' standout performer with a game-high WPA of plus 35.1% and a RE24 of plus 3.3, but his contributions were not enough to overcome Detroit's collective effort. Zach McKinstry led the Tigers offensively at plus 21.5% WPA and plus 1.6 RE24, while Gleyber Torres contributed plus 8.5% WPA and plus 1.8 RE24. Detroit's bullpen work was notable, with Will Vest posting plus 7.2% WPA, Brant Hurter adding plus 6.4%, and Tyler Holton contributing plus 4.5%. The Tigers finished with 12 hits against St. Louis's 6, and committed no errors to the Cardinals' one, reflecting the cleaner overall execution that the DiamondIQ model ultimately recognized in assigning Detroit a 100% final win probability.