MLB Recap · April 3, 2026

Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

PHI10
Final
COL1

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
PHI71101000010130
COL000100000150

The Story

The Philadelphia Phillies demolished the Colorado Rockies 10-1 at Coors Field on April 3, 2026, erupting for seven runs in the first inning and never surrendering control of the game. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Colorado holding a 54% win probability at first pitch, but that figure collapsed almost immediately and finished at 0% as Philadelphia's offense overwhelmed Rockies starter Michael Lorenzen before the game was barely underway.

The decisive stretch came in the opening two innings, where the win-probability pendulum swung sharply and repeatedly in Philadelphia's favor. Kyle Schwarber's groundout in the top of the first, which registered a +12.0% win-probability swing, came in the context of the Phillies' seven-run frame and reflected how thoroughly that inning reshaped the game's trajectory. J.T. Realmuto added a flyout in the top of the second worth +12.7%, the single largest batting-team swing of the night, as Philadelphia continued to pile on. On Colorado's side, the Rockies' best moments were fleeting — Mickey Moniak's pop out in the bottom of the first cost the home team 12.5% in win probability, and Jake McCarthy's flyout in the second against Aaron Nola subtracted another 14.1%, underscoring how thoroughly the Phillies shut down any hint of a Rockies rally. Willi Castro's double off Nola in the second was Colorado's lone bright spot among the top plays, generating just +1.7%.

Aaron Nola was the game's dominant individual performer, accumulating +27.1% in win probability added as he stifled the Colorado lineup and held them to a single run. His command through the early innings was the foundation that protected the Phillies' cushion. Realmuto and Schwarber led Philadelphia's offensive contributors by WPA, with Schwarber also posting a +1.1 RE24, the best run-expectancy mark among position players on either side. The Phillies finished with 13 hits and committed no errors, while Colorado managed only five hits in a thoroughly one-sided afternoon at Coors.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025PHI bats firstFinalCOL win %PHI win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Jake McCarthy Flyout
Bot 2nd · off Aaron Nola
-14.1%
J.T. Realmuto Flyout
Top 2nd · off Michael Lorenzen
+12.7%
Mickey Moniak Pop Out
Bot 1st · off Aaron Nola
-12.5%
Kyle Schwarber Groundout
Top 1st · off Michael Lorenzen
+12.0%
Willi Castro Double
Bot 2nd · off Aaron Nola
+1.7%

Top Batters by WPA

J.T. Realmuto+12.7%-0.3 RE24
Kyle Schwarber+12.0%+1.1 RE24
Willi Castro+1.6%+0.5 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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