Miami Marlins at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| NYY | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | - | 8 | 6 | 0 |
The Story
The New York Yankees defeated the Miami Marlins 8-2 at Yankee Stadium on April 3, 2026, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home victory from 54% before first pitch to 100% by game's end. New York struck early, plating two runs in the bottom of the first and adding two more in the second, building a cushion that Miami never seriously threatened. The Marlins managed their most meaningful offensive moment in the top of the fifth, when Owen Caissie connected on a home run off Will Warren that shifted win probability by plus-8.7 percentage points, the single largest swing of the night. Beyond that blow, however, Miami generated little, finishing with just four hits and an error while the Yankees answered in the bottom half with a Cody Bellinger double off Tyler Phillips that moved the needle another 4.6 points.
The Yankees' second inning proved foundational to the outcome. An Aaron Judge hit by pitch off Eury Pérez added 4.5 percentage points of win probability, and a Trent Grisham walk in the same frame contributed another 5.5 points, illustrating how Miami's inability to limit traffic early cost them dearly. New York tacked on single runs in the sixth, seventh, and eighth to close out the scoring at 8-2. Bellinger finished as the second-most impactful Yankees bat by WPA at plus-6.8%, aided by his flyout in the sixth that still registered plus-5.6 points in a high-leverage spot, while Judge led all position players at plus-8.4% WPA and plus-2.3 RE24.
On the mound, Will Warren was the evening's most valuable individual by WPA, finishing at plus-11.2 percentage points despite surrendering Caissie's home run. Jake Bird and Tim Hill added plus-5.0 and plus-4.0 points respectively in relief, completing a performance in which New York's pitching staff allowed just two runs on four hits. For Miami, Tyler Phillips absorbed the bulk of the damage, surrendering the key Bellinger plate appearances in the fifth and sixth innings that anchored New York's win-probability advantage through the middle frames.