Detroit Tigers at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks erased a five-run deficit to defeat the Detroit Tigers 7-5 at Chase Field on March 31, 2026, in a game that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win swing from 54 percent at first pitch all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Detroit appeared to have command of the contest after the third inning, when Riley Greene delivered a double off Brandon Pfaadt that added 14.9 percent to Detroit's win probability, and Jake Rogers followed with another double off Pfaadt worth 12.0 percent, helping the Tigers plate five runs in the frame while Arizona was held scoreless through seven innings. The Diamondbacks scratched a single run across in the fourth, but the game seemed firmly in Detroit's hands heading into the late innings.

The eighth inning changed everything. Arizona mounted a six-run rally against Detroit's bullpen that completely flipped the outcome. Ketel Marte drew a walk off Will Vest that added 9.5 percent to Arizona's win probability, and Corbin Carroll followed with a double off Vest worth 12.4 percent to keep the rally alive. The decisive blow came from Jose Fernandez, who crushed a home run off Kenley Jansen that swung win probability by 52.3 percent in a single swing and effectively sealed the comeback.

Fernandez was the clear standout performer of the game, finishing with a WPA of plus 57.7 percent and an RE24 of plus 3.7, numbers that reflect just how singularly his eighth-inning home run altered the contest. Carroll also contributed meaningfully at plus 11.7 percent WPA. On the pitching side, Casey Mize was the top performer by win probability among Arizona's staff, posting a plus 16.4 percent WPA, while Paul Sewald added plus 6.3 percent in support. The DiamondIQ model had leaned toward Arizona entering the game, and while Detroit's third-inning outburst temporarily inverted that lean, the Diamondbacks ultimately validated the pre-game projection in dramatic fashion.