The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 6-2 on March 31, 2026, at American Family Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of Milwaukee's win probability moving from 54% before first pitch to 100% by game's end. Tampa Bay struck first with a run in the top of the first inning, but the Brewers ultimately pulled away with a decisive fifth inning that shifted the complexion of the contest entirely.
The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the fifth, where Brice Turang delivered a single off Shane McClanahan that registered the largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 30.0%, reflecting just how much damage was concentrated in that frame. A Joey Ortiz walk off McClanahan in the same inning added another plus 6.4% to Milwaukee's probability, as the Brewers pushed three runs across in the fifth. Nick Fortes had given Tampa Bay a brief foothold with a home run off Brandon Woodruff in the top of the fifth worth plus 11.2%, but the Rays could not sustain that momentum. Gary Sánchez extended the Milwaukee advantage with a home run off Cole Sulser in the sixth, a swing worth plus 12.8%, and Brandon Lockridge followed with a double off Sulser that added another plus 8.5%, pushing the Brewers to a commanding position from which Tampa Bay never recovered.
Turang finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 28.7% with a RE24 of plus 2.4, while Sánchez contributed plus 20.1% WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.6. Fortes led Tampa Bay's individual contributors with a plus 11.5% WPA and plus 0.6 RE24, though the effort was not enough to overcome Milwaukee's run-scoring bursts in the fifth and sixth. On the pitching side, Jared Koenig paced the Brewers' staff at plus 7.3% WPA, followed by Grant Anderson at plus 5.0% and Abner Uribe at plus 4.5%, as Milwaukee's bullpen held the Rays to no further damage through the final frames.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.