New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

The Seattle Mariners opened their home slate with a 2-1 victory over the New York Yankees at T-Mobile Park on March 30, 2026, a tightly contested game that remained in doubt until the final at-bat. The DiamondIQ model's estimate entered at 54 percent in favor of Seattle and closed at 100 percent, reflecting how completely the Mariners controlled the outcome once the ninth inning unfolded in their favor. Luis Castillo was the backbone of that effort, generating +27.8 percent in win probability added to lead all pitchers, while the Yankees scratched across their lone run in the top of the seventh on a day when their offense managed just six hits.

The decisive sequence arrived in the bottom of the ninth against Paul Blackburn. Brendan Donovan delivered the game-winning hit, a single that swung win probability by +19.5 percent and represented the largest single-play shift of the night. Cal Raleigh followed with a run-scoring single of his own, adding another +16.4 percent swing and capping the walk-off rally. Those two hits erased what had been a narrow 1-0 Yankees lead entering the inning. Earlier, the Yankees had briefly threatened in the top of the ninth when Giancarlo Stanton ripped a double off Matt Brash for a +11.9 percent swing, but Amed Rosario's strikeout to end the inning cost New York 12.8 percent in win probability and kept the door open for Seattle's response.

On the offensive side, Donovan finished as the top performer by a wide margin at +30.0 percent WPA and +1.4 RE24, while Stanton's double gave him +17.9 percent WPA despite the Yankees ultimately falling short. Cole Young contributed quietly with +7.2 percent WPA and a team-best +1.0 RE24 among position players. On the mound, Brash added +13.5 percent WPA in relief and Fernando Cruz contributed +13.0 percent, but it was Castillo's dominant showing that set the foundation for Seattle's narrow, hard-earned win.