Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays edged the Milwaukee Brewers 3-2 at American Family Field on March 30, 2026, overcoming a deficit in the final innings to secure the road victory. The DiamondIQ model opened the day giving Milwaukee a 54% chance of winning at home, but by the final out that probability had collapsed to zero. The decisive sequence came in the top of the ninth, when Nick Fortes laced a double off Trevor Megill that swung win probability by 40.5 percentage points, the single largest play of the game. Fortes finished as the top performer by WPA at plus-34.0%, paired with a plus-0.5 RE24, making him the clear catalyst of the late Rays rally.

The Brewers had appeared to seize control in the bottom of the sixth when William Contreras connected on a two-run home run off Nick Martinez, a swing worth plus-19.5% in win probability that gave Milwaukee a 2-1 lead. The Rays answered in the seventh when Jonny DeLuca hit a solo home run off Aaron Ashby, a plus-15.6% WPA play that knotted the game at two. DeLuca closed with a plus-18.5% WPA mark and plus-0.6 RE24 on the day. The bottom of the ninth offered Milwaukee one final chance, as Sal Frelick reached on a hit by pitch off Ian Seymour worth plus-12.3% in win probability, but Blake Perkins grounded into a forceout off Kevin Kelly that effectively sealed the game, a plus-27.0% WPA moment that ranked second on the night.

On the pitching side, Kyle Harrison led all pitchers with plus-13.2% WPA, followed by Garrett Cleavinger at plus-10.9% and Angel Zerpa at plus-10.6%, a trio that collectively held Milwaukee in check through the critical late innings. The Rays finished with seven hits and one error against Milwaukee's six hits and clean defense, but the game ultimately turned on a handful of high-leverage moments where Tampa Bay consistently came out ahead on the DiamondIQ model's win-probability ledger.