The Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the New York Mets 4-3 in ten innings on March 29, 2026, at Citi Field, overcoming a game that the DiamondIQ model had opened with a 54 percent pre-game win probability favoring New York. The Pirates scored twice in the top of the tenth to take a 4-2 lead, then held on as the Mets answered with one run before stranding the tying run to close out a hard-fought road victory.
The decisive sequence came in the top of the tenth inning against reliever Richard Lovelady. Henry Davis opened the door with a single that shifted win probability 18.5 points in Pittsburgh's favor, and Ryan O'Hearn followed with another single that represented the game's single largest win-probability swing, adding 36.5 points and giving the Pirates their two-run cushion. In the bottom half, Jorge Polanco's flyout off José Urquidy proved to be the Mets' most consequential out, swinging 19.0 points back toward Pittsburgh and effectively sealing the result. Earlier, Dennis Santana's strikeout of Jared Young in the ninth had preserved a tie, adding 14.0 points at a critical juncture, while Bryan Reynolds had the game's lone notable negative play, a forceout off Luke Weaver in the top of the ninth that cost Pittsburgh 12.0 points.
O'Hearn finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-30.5 with a RE24 of plus-1.8, while Davis contributed plus-20.4 WPA in support. Francisco Lindor led the Mets' side at plus-16.5 WPA despite the loss. On the mound, Yohan Ramírez, Huascar Brazobán, and Luke Weaver each posted WPA figures between plus-13.5 and plus-13.7, forming the backbone of a Pittsburgh bullpen effort that protected a narrow lead long enough for the offense to break through in extras.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.