Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals opened the 2026 season with a 6-3 victory over the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on March 29, erasing a pre-game deficit in the DiamondIQ model's estimate — Chicago entered with a 54% win probability and finished at 0%. The Nationals struck first with a three-run first inning, but the Cubs answered in the fourth, when Ian Happ and Alex Bregman hit back-to-back home runs off Jake Irvin, each swing carrying significant weight: Happ's blast shifted win probability 11.4 points in Chicago's favor and Bregman's added another 10.0 points, briefly pulling the Cubs within reach. Washington added a run in the sixth before Keibert Ruiz delivered the decisive blow in the eighth, a home run off Hoby Milner that swung win probability 16.1 points toward the Nationals and effectively closed the door on any Chicago comeback.

Despite absorbing those back-to-back home runs in the fourth, Jake Irvin was Washington's most valuable pitcher on the evening by WPA, finishing with a plus-17.0% contribution as he limited the Cubs to four hits overall. Irvin benefited from Chicago's missed opportunities, most notably Moisés Ballesteros popping out in the second inning — a moment that cost the Cubs 8.8 points of win probability — and Pete Crow-Armstrong grounding out in the first, a swing of 8.3 points. On the offensive side, Ian Happ led all hitters with a plus-14.9% WPA despite playing for the losing team, while Joey Wiemer paced Washington with a plus-13.4% WPA and a team-best plus-4.6 RE24. Gus Varland and Hunter Harvey provided important relief work for the Nationals, combining for plus-16.5% WPA out of the bullpen to seal the road win.