New York Yankees at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees held off the San Francisco Giants 3-1 at Oracle Park on March 28, 2026, moving the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Giants win from 54 percent before first pitch all the way to zero by the final out. New York finished with seven hits and committed no errors, while San Francisco collected nine hits but could not convert them into runs when it mattered most.

The decisive sequence began in the top of the third inning, when Ben Rice doubled off Tyler Mahle, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 20.3 percent in the Yankees' favor and set the tone for the afternoon. Aaron Judge extended the lead in the fifth with a solo home run off Ryan Borucki, adding another 12.2 percentage points to New York's probability of winning. San Francisco's best chances to claw back came in the sixth and eighth innings, but Harrison Bader grounded into a double play off Jake Bird in the bottom of the sixth, erasing 16.6 percentage points from the Giants' outlook, and Rafael Devers grounded into another double play off Tim Hill in the eighth, costing San Francisco an additional 14.4 percentage points. Heliot Ramos did generate a single off Bird in the sixth that was worth plus 9.2 percent for the home side, but the Giants could not sustain the threat.

Among individual performers measured by the DiamondIQ model's win-probability accounting, Rice led all batters at plus 16.0 percent WPA and plus 0.9 RE24, while Ramos posted plus 12.6 percent WPA despite being on the losing side. Judge finished at plus 9.0 percent WPA. On the mound, Bird was the most impactful reliever by WPA at plus 23.3 percent for New York, aided largely by the double-play he induced, followed by Tim Hill at plus 15.1 percent and starter Will Warren at plus 7.4 percent.