The Milwaukee Brewers opened the 2026 season with a commanding 6-1 victory over the Chicago White Sox at American Family Field on March 28. The DiamondIQ model's estimate entered the game with Milwaukee holding a 54 percent home win probability, a figure that climbed steadily before reaching 100 percent by the final out. Milwaukee staked its claim early, plating three runs in the first inning and adding another in the second to build a lead the White Sox never seriously threatened. Chicago finished with seven hits and an error, while Milwaukee went clean defensively with 12 hits to support its pitching staff.
The game's most consequential sequence came through a series of high-leverage strikeouts that defined the win-probability swings throughout the afternoon. Reese McGuire's strikeout against Chad Patrick in the top of the second shifted win probability by minus 7.3 percent, the single largest swing of the game, underscoring just how much Chicago left on the table in scoring position. The White Sox's lone offensive highlight came when Munetaka Murakami connected for a home run off Chad Patrick in the fourth, a plus 6.9 percent swing that briefly offered a foothold, though his subsequent strikeout against Aaron Ashby in the fifth, a minus 6.1 percent shift, quickly extinguished any momentum. On Milwaukee's side, Jake Bauers and Joey Ortiz each contributed with strikeouts drawn off Sean Burke in the first and second innings, generating plus 6.7 percent and plus 5.3 percent swings respectively.
Aaron Ashby led all pitchers with a plus 11.3 percent WPA, delivering the most valuable pitching performance of the afternoon, while Chad Patrick added plus 8.8 percent and Angel Zerpa contributed plus 2.9 percent in support. Among position players, Bauers finished with the top WPA figure at plus 7.0 percent, followed closely by Ortiz at plus 6.5 percent and Chase Meidroth at plus 5.3 percent with a positive RE24 of plus 0.3. The DiamondIQ model leans toward Milwaukee's pitching depth as the primary driver of the outcome, with Ashby and Patrick combining to neutralize a White Sox lineup that managed only one run on the day.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.