Kansas City Royals at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 1 |
The Story
The Atlanta Braves walked off the Kansas City Royals 6-2 on March 28, 2026, at Truist Park in one of the more dramatic reversals of a game that appeared headed toward a different outcome. The DiamondIQ model entered the night giving Atlanta a 54 percent chance of winning at home, but through eight innings the Royals held a 2-0 lead and the model's estimate of an Atlanta victory had collapsed toward zero. The Braves then erupted for all six of their runs in the bottom of the ninth off Carlos Estévez, completing a stunning comeback that pushed the model's final win probability to 100 percent.
The decisive sequence in the ninth inning was built around Michael Harris II, whose single off Estévez registered the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 51.8 percent, and an Ozzie Albies walk that added another 21.3 percent. Dominic Smith then delivered the finishing blow with a home run off Estévez worth plus 15.4 percent in win probability, capping the rally. The Kansas City offense had been generating its own momentum earlier, with Salvador Perez connecting on a home run off Reynaldo Lopez in the seventh inning for a plus 15.6 percent swing — the play that briefly extended Kansas City's cushion before the collapse. A Smith groundout in the eighth off Lucas Erceg had been the low point for Atlanta, draining 17.8 percent from their win probability at the time.
Harris II was the game's defining performer, finishing with a combined plus 60.2 percent in win probability added and a run expectancy of plus 1.8, numbers that reflected how thoroughly the centerfielder controlled Atlanta's rally. On the pitching side, Michael Wacha contributed the largest positive contribution among starters and relievers with plus 31.0 percent WPA, while Erceg added plus 13.3 percent and Lopez plus 11.7 percent before surrendering the Perez home run. The Royals finished with five hits against Atlanta's nine, committing no errors while the Braves allowed one, a stat that mattered little once Estévez took the mound in the ninth.