Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets walked off the Pittsburgh Pirates 4-2 in eleven innings on March 28, 2026, at Citi Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by game's end. The two clubs played a scoreless nine innings before the game finally cracked open in extras, where the decisive blow came in the bottom of the eleventh when Luis Robert Jr. crushed a home run off Hunter Barco that swung win probability by 67.7 points, the single largest play of the night and the one that ultimately settled the contest. Pittsburgh had briefly seized control in the top of the tenth, when Nick Gonzales delivered a single off Luis García that shifted the win probability 37.4 points in the Pirates' favor, the most impactful play of the night before Robert's walkoff. The Pirates added another run in the eleventh on Bryan Reynolds' single off Richard Lovelady, a swing of 28.5 points, but it was not enough to overcome New York's late surge.

Robert led all position players with a cumulative WPA of plus-69.6 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.6, making him the clear offensive centerpiece of the Mets' victory. Gonzales finished as Pittsburgh's most impactful bat at plus-48.9 percent WPA despite his team falling short, while Mark Vientos contributed a plus-35.4 percent WPA single off Barco in the bottom of the tenth that set the table for New York's comeback. On the mound, Mitch Keller was Pittsburgh's most valuable pitcher at plus-31.0 percent WPA, a reflection of his ability to keep the game scoreless deep into the night. Gregory Soto added plus-18.4 percent WPA for the Pirates, while David Peterson contributed plus-17.7 percent WPA for New York. Despite the Pirates generating twelve hits to the Mets' six, Pittsburgh could not convert that contact advantage into enough runs, as the model leans toward sequencing and leverage explaining much of the gap between the two teams' hit totals and their final run output.