The New York Yankees blanked the San Francisco Giants 3-0 at Oracle Park on March 27, 2026, handing the Giants a shutout loss in which they managed just one hit across nine innings. The DiamondIQ model had opened the game with a 54 percent home win probability for San Francisco, but that figure ultimately fell to zero as New York manufactured all of its damage in a single decisive inning and its pitching staff held firm the rest of the way.
The entire outcome turned on the top of the sixth inning, which produced three consecutive significant win-probability swings. Aaron Judge led off the frame with a home run off Robbie Ray that shifted the Yankees' win probability by plus 17.5 percent, the single largest play of the game. Paul Goldschmidt then doubled, also off Ray, adding another 8.3 percent, before Giancarlo Stanton launched a home run off José Buttó that moved the needle a further 10.3 percent. Those three plays in sequence erased whatever cushion the Giants' home-field projection had provided and put New York firmly in command. A Matt Chapman walk in the bottom of the seventh off Fernando Cruz represented the Giants' most consequential positive swing at plus 5.9 percent, but San Francisco was unable to convert any of its late opportunities, as Rafael Devers grounded out against David Bednar in the ninth to close out any remaining hope.
On the individual ledger, Judge finished as the game's top offensive contributor with a WPA of plus 16.1 percent and a RE24 of plus 0.9, while Stanton matched that RE24 figure at plus 0.9 with a WPA of plus 8.4 percent. Goldschmidt contributed a WPA of plus 5.5 percent despite finishing at minus 0.1 in RE24. On the mound, Cam Schlittler was the dominant figure by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a WPA of plus 27.0 percent, with Tim Hill adding plus 12.2 percent and Camilo Doval contributing plus 5.2 percent as New York's pitching staff combined to limit San Francisco to that single hit.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.