The Miami Marlins defeated the Colorado Rockies 2-1 at loanDepot park on March 27, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54% pre-game home win probability all the way to 100% by game's end. Miami did its damage early, scoring both of its runs in the second inning, and that two-run cushion proved sufficient as Colorado managed just one run across nine innings on seven hits.
The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the second, where Owen Caissie delivered a double off Kyle Freeland that shifted win probability by plus 8.4 percentage points in Miami's favor, setting the tone for the Marlins' pitching staff to protect the lead the rest of the way. Colorado's best opportunity to claw back emerged in the fourth inning when Jordan Beck's single off Sandy Alcantara added 8.1 percentage points to the Rockies' win probability, but the club could not convert that moment into a meaningful rally. The Rockies' late-game bids fell flat, most notably when Brenton Doyle struck out against Alcantara in the seventh, a swing-and-miss that cost Colorado 9.2 percentage points of win probability, and Beck's pop out against Pete Fairbanks in the ninth erased another 8.9 points.
Sandy Alcantara was the dominant force on the mound, contributing plus 25.6 percentage points of win probability, the largest single-game pitching figure in this contest, with Fairbanks adding plus 15.2 and Andrew Nardi contributing plus 5.7 in support. Offensively, Connor Norby and Caissie each finished at plus 8.9 WPA, while Javier Sanoja led all batters with a plus 1.0 RE24 alongside his plus 8.0 WPA contribution. The model leans toward crediting Miami's pitching depth and that early two-run frame as the structural reasons the Marlins never relinquished control of this one.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.