The Toronto Blue Jays edged the Athletics 3-2 at Rogers Centre on March 27, 2026, in a game that swung dramatically in its final inning. The DiamondIQ model opened with Toronto as a modest 54 percent home favorite, but the path to that eventual 100 percent certainty was anything but straightforward, as the two most consequential plays of the night arrived in back-to-back half-innings and nearly cancelled each other out.
Oakland struck first in the fourth when Shea Langeliers connected on a solo home run off Kevin Gausman, a swing that added 11.6 percent to the Athletics' win probability. Toronto answered in the fifth behind an Andrés Giménez triple off Luis Severino, a hit that shifted the game's leverage 12.0 percent toward the Blue Jays and helped Toronto build a 3-1 advantage through eight innings. Oakland kept itself alive in the top of the ninth when Langeliers launched a second home run, this one off Jeff Hoffman, pulling the Athletics within one and registering the game's second-largest single play swing at plus 35.7 percent. The Athletics' Jacob Wilson had been unable to extend a seventh-inning opportunity, grounding into a double play off Louis Varland that cost Oakland 15.6 percent in win probability and proved costly in retrospect.
The decisive moment arrived in the bottom of the ninth, when Giménez singled off Justin Sterner to walk off the Blue Jays to victory, the game's single largest win-probability swing at plus 35.9 percent. Langeliers finished as the top performer by combined WPA at plus 53.7 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.2, while Giménez matched his impact from the other side with plus 48.5 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.9. On the pitching side, Gausman led Toronto's staff with plus 14.8 percent WPA despite surrendering the early home run, and the model's estimate closed at 100 percent in Toronto's favor.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.