The Detroit Tigers defeated the Colorado Rockies 11-8 on March 24, 2026, at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick, overcoming an early deficit to pull away with a decisive run through the middle innings. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Colorado holding a 63 percent pre-game win probability, but the Tigers systematically erased that advantage before finishing at zero percent for the Rockies by the final out. Detroit collected 16 hits to Colorado's 14, committing one error to the Rockies' none, but it was the timing of the Tigers' offensive bursts that proved the difference.
The game's most consequential sequence came in the top of the fifth inning, when Wenceel Pérez deposited a home run off Victor Juarez that swung win probability 33.1 percent in Detroit's favor, the single largest play of the contest. That swing arrived at a critical juncture, as Colorado had previously answered Detroit's first-inning two-run lead with a three-run third off Justin Verlander, courtesy in part of Jordan Beck's double that moved the needle 25.3 percent toward the Rockies. Ezequiel Tovar added a home run against Verlander in the fifth to keep Colorado within reach, a swing worth 22.1 percent. But Detroit responded in the sixth when Max Anderson singled off Brennan Bernardino for a 22.3 percent shift, and Pérez struck again in the seventh with another home run, this one against Zach Agnos, adding a further 13.3 percent to the Tigers' ledger.
Pérez finished as the game's top performer by a significant margin, accumulating a combined WPA of plus 44.5 percent alongside a RE24 of plus 4.2, his two home runs serving as the backbone of the Detroit victory. Max Anderson contributed plus 24.2 percent WPA and plus 2.6 RE24, while Beck led Colorado's statistical contributors with plus 21.4 percent WPA and plus 2.0 RE24 despite his team's defeat. On the mound, Casey Mize led Tigers pitchers with plus 5.1 percent WPA, followed by Brant Hurter at plus 4.3 percent and Tomoyuki Sugano at plus 0.9 percent, a collective effort that ultimately held Colorado's late push to a single run in the ninth.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.