The Colorado Rockies defeated the Detroit Tigers 6-5 on March 23, 2026, at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked from a 67 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent at the final out. The game was scoreless through two innings before both teams traded runs in the third, with Troy Johnston's home run off Jack Flaherty delivering an 18.8 percent win-probability swing in Colorado's favor, and Gleyber Torres answering with a single off Ryan Feltner that added 17.2 percent for Detroit. The Tigers extended their lead with two runs in the fifth, Torres again doing the damage with a double off Jaden Hill that added another 12.4 percent, but Colorado answered with single runs in the sixth and seventh to keep pace.
Detroit's best chance to seize control slipped away in the top of the seventh when Javier Báez grounded into a double play off Chase Dollander, a sequence that swung win probability 12.9 percent against the Tigers. Riley Greene's double off Dollander in the eighth added 17.2 percent for Detroit and brought the tying run to the plate, but Colorado held to preserve the one-run win. Dollander was the game's most impactful arm by a wide margin, generating a combined 23.9 percent in win-probability added, with Victor Vodnik and Kyle Finnegan providing additional support out of the bullpen.
Torres finished as the game's top offensive performer despite being on the losing side, accumulating 29.6 percent in win-probability added and a RE24 of plus-2.5 across his two key hits. Johnston led Colorado's contributors with 15.5 percent WPA and 1.3 RE24, while Kyle Karros added 13.9 percent WPA and 1.3 RE24 to support a Rockies offense that finished with 14 hits against Detroit's 10.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.