The Baltimore Orioles shut out the Washington Nationals 2-0 at Nationals Park on March 23, 2026, scoring the game's only runs in the seventh inning to hand Washington its final win probability of zero percent. The DiamondIQ model had opened the night favoring the Nationals at 60 percent, but the game remained scoreless through six before Baltimore broke through decisively.
The decisive blow came from Leody Taveras, whose seventh-inning home run off Holden Powell was the single most impactful play of the contest, shifting win probability by plus-26.7 percent in Baltimore's favor and accounting for both runs on the board. That swing moved the Orioles from a position of uncertainty into firm control, and Washington never threatened seriously enough to recover. The closest the Nationals came to manufacturing anything meaningful was a Luis García Jr. flyout in the fourth inning off Shane Baz, which cost Washington 6.6 percentage points of win probability and reflected just how difficult Baz was to solve all evening.
On the mound, Shane Baz led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-26.9 percent, establishing himself as the backbone of Baltimore's effort, while Chris Bassitt contributed plus-15.9 percent and Yennier Cano added plus-13.3 percent as the Orioles pieced together a dominant three-hit shutout. Kevin Made's strikeout to end the ninth inning off Dietrich Enns added another plus-14.4 percent swing from Baltimore's perspective, punctuating a night on which Washington went quietly. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting the Orioles' pitching staff as the defining factor, given that their collective WPA outpaced anything Washington's offense could generate across nine innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.