The Atlanta Braves defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 5-2 at LECOM Park on March 23, 2026, completing the win with a clean seven-error-free performance at the plate and in the field. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Pittsburgh holding a 35% chance of winning at home, but Atlanta chipped away inning by inning, scoring in the first, second, and fourth before delivering the decisive blows in the sixth. By game's end, the model's estimate had fallen to 0% for the Pirates.
The turning point arrived in the top of the sixth inning, when Atlanta strung together back-to-back home runs off Mike Clevinger. Mike Yastrzemski's home run carried a win-probability swing of plus 9.6 percentage points, and Matt Olson immediately followed with another shot that added another plus 6.7 points, effectively breaking the game open. Pittsburgh's best moment had come an inning earlier, when Nick Gonzales laced a double off Samuel Strickland in the bottom of the fifth for a plus 11.2-point swing, trimming the deficit and briefly shifting momentum toward the home side. That answer proved short-lived, however, as the two-run sixth erased whatever the Pirates had built.
Among the game's standout performers by the DiamondIQ model's metrics, Gonzales led Pittsburgh with plus 9.5% WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.0, while Yastrzemski paced Atlanta's offense at plus 8.7% WPA. Eli White also contributed meaningfully with plus 6.7% WPA and the game's best RE24 of plus 1.1 among position players. On the mound, Pittsburgh starter Didier Fuentes was the game's most valuable pitcher by WPA at plus 18.6%, limiting damage while he was active, but Clevinger's sixth-inning struggles ultimately proved too costly for the Pirates to overcome.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.