The Boston Red Sox defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 6-3 at LECOM Park on March 22, 2026, completing the comeback after a dominant eight-run swing in the top of the eighth inning erased what had been a comfortable Pittsburgh lead. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with the Pirates holding a 64 percent pre-game win probability, a figure that collapsed to zero by the final out as Boston scored four runs in the eighth to pull away decisively.
The decisive sequence came in the top of the eighth against Derek Diamond, when Masataka Yoshida laced a double that shifted win probability by 22.5 percent, the single largest swing of the game. Andruw Monasterio followed with a single worth another 9.9 percent, and after a pitching change brought in Jaden Woods, Antonio Anderson added a single that pushed the probability needle an additional 18.0 percent. Pittsburgh had briefly generated momentum in the fourth inning when Henry Davis connected for a home run off Sonny Gray, a blow worth 11.4 percent in win probability, and Shawn Ross added a solo shot off Ryan Watson in the bottom of the eighth for another 9.8 percent swing, but those efforts came too late to overcome Boston's surge.
Antonio Anderson finished as the game's top offensive contributor by WPA, finishing at plus-19.5 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.5, while Yoshida posted plus-17.3 percent and the highest RE24 among position players at plus-1.6. On the mound, Sonny Gray led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-15.7, keeping Boston largely in check through the middle innings despite the Davis home run, with Justin Lawrence and Ryan Watson adding plus-7.3 and plus-6.7 respectively out of the bullpen in a losing effort.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.