The Kansas City Royals rallied from a four-run deficit to defeat the Colorado Rockies 6-5 at Surprise Stadium on March 21, 2026, in one of the more dramatic late-game reversals captured by the DiamondIQ model this spring. Colorado seized control with a four-run fourth inning, with Chad Stevens delivering a key single off Cole Ragans that added 12.9% to the Rockies' win probability, followed by Willi Castro connecting off Caden Monke for another 12.6% swing. Those contributions built what appeared to be a commanding lead, and Colorado's pitching — led by Kyle Freeland at plus 7.8% WPA — kept Kansas City largely quiet through much of the contest. The Royals chipped away with single runs in the fifth and seventh before scoring twice in the eighth to pull within one, though Brett Squires's strikeout off Evan Shawver in that frame cost Colorado 18.7% in win probability, a missed opportunity that proved consequential.
The DiamondIQ model had estimated Kansas City's pre-game win probability at just 37%, and that figure bottomed out further before the ninth inning produced a stunning reversal. With the Royals trailing by one and facing Mason Green, Rudy Martin Jr. delivered a single that swung win probability by 45.9%, the single largest play of the game. Abraham Toro followed with a double off Green for another 38.1% swing, and Kansas City converted those opportunities into two ninth-inning runs to take a 6-5 lead they would not relinquish. Martin Jr. finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 50.0% with a RE24 of plus 1.4, while Toro added plus 36.7% WPA and plus 0.8 RE24. Nick Loftin also contributed meaningfully at plus 15.9% WPA and plus 1.3 RE24. Colorado committed no errors but Kansas City's three errors did not ultimately cost them, as the Royals' late-inning production proved decisive.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.