The Washington Nationals defeated the New York Mets 3-1 at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches on March 21, 2026, in a game that remained scoreless through seven innings before breaking open in the final two frames. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Washington a 63% win probability as the home side, and that estimate reached 100% by the final out.
The scoring began in the eighth inning, when Mark Vientos gave the Mets a brief lead with a home run off Gus Varland, a swing that shifted win probability 21.3 points in New York's favor. Washington responded immediately in the bottom half, as Kervin Pichardo doubled off Matt Turner to generate an 18.6-point swing that helped the Nationals knot the game at one. The decisive blow came in the bottom of the ninth, when Joey Wiemer launched a home run off Dakota Hawkins, a 35.9-point win-probability swing that put the game away and accounted for the final margin of 3-1. An earlier threat in the top of the fifth showed promise for the Mets when Jacob Reimer doubled off Cade Cavalli for an 11.8-point swing, but Yonny Hernandez's fielder's choice out wiped away 10.3 points of that gain and kept the Nationals out of serious danger.
By the win-probability metrics, Wiemer was the game's standout contributor, finishing with a WPA of plus-29.2 and an RE24 of plus-1.2. On the pitching side, Will Watson led all arms with a WPA of plus-27.8, followed by Joander Suarez at plus-22.0, while Cade Cavalli contributed plus-15.9 despite the fifth-inning pressure. The DiamondIQ model leans toward Washington's bullpen as the primary driver of the outcome, holding New York scoreless until the eighth before Wiemer closed the door.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.