New York Mets at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals defeated the New York Mets 3-1 at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches on March 21, 2026, in a game that remained scoreless through seven innings before breaking open in the final two frames. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Washington a 63% win probability as the home side, and that estimate reached 100% by the final out.

The scoring began in the eighth inning, when Mark Vientos gave the Mets a brief lead with a home run off Gus Varland, a swing that shifted win probability 21.3 points in New York's favor. Washington responded immediately in the bottom half, as Kervin Pichardo doubled off Matt Turner to generate an 18.6-point swing that helped the Nationals knot the game at one. The decisive blow came in the bottom of the ninth, when Joey Wiemer launched a home run off Dakota Hawkins, a 35.9-point win-probability swing that put the game away and accounted for the final margin of 3-1. An earlier threat in the top of the fifth showed promise for the Mets when Jacob Reimer doubled off Cade Cavalli for an 11.8-point swing, but Yonny Hernandez's fielder's choice out wiped away 10.3 points of that gain and kept the Nationals out of serious danger.

By the win-probability metrics, Wiemer was the game's standout contributor, finishing with a WPA of plus-29.2 and an RE24 of plus-1.2. On the pitching side, Will Watson led all arms with a WPA of plus-27.8, followed by Joander Suarez at plus-22.0, while Cade Cavalli contributed plus-15.9 despite the fifth-inning pressure. The DiamondIQ model leans toward Washington's bullpen as the primary driver of the outcome, holding New York scoreless until the eighth before Wiemer closed the door.